Happy Derby Day! Saturday’s 14-race card presents a slew of betting opportunities, with plenty of value present on the morning lines. We’ll try to identify and bring home some of those outsiders leading up to one of the most exciting Kentucky Derbies in recent memory.
Best Bet: #8 McCraken, Race 5
Value Play of the Day: #5 Outplay (10-1 ML), Race 8
Race 1: 6-8-3-5
#6 ONCE ON WHISKEY gets the day started for Bob Baffert, and should be the benefactor of a solid early pace. Faces winners for the first time today, but should be full of run in the latter stages. #8 HONORABLE TREASURE was in over his head in last year’s Champagne after an impressive Saratoga score. This is a more manageable spot for his third start of the year. #3 COVE BLUE projects to track Share the Upside to his inside. The Romans barn boasts great numbers on the turnback, so look for this one to have staying power up front. #5 CROSSWALK took advantage of a torrid early pace last time out but narrowly missed. Normally found closer to the front, this one looms a threat as the likely favorite.
Race 2: 6-1-2-7
#6 BIG GRAY ROCKET returned from a year-plus layoff this winter and caught tough fields in both starts since shifting to the Stall barn. Enters this off a bullet workout and should do well with the added ground today. #1 GRAY SKY has hit the board in nine of 13 starts at Churchill, but often in the bridesmaid spot. Also comes in with a bullet workout in tow. #2 SUMMER LUCK faces boys today and has not caught dry dirt since being overmatched in the CCA Oaks last summer. #7 SUPER DERECHO‘s best race came in the slop, but could find himself alone on the early lead and put the others to sleep.
Race 3: 6-4-8-5
#6 IRISH FREEDOM exits the Baffert barn, but enters the care of Brad Cox who connects at 30% with new acquisitions. Trainer also hits at a whopping 58% with the removal of blinkers while Castellano takes the mount for the first time. #4 HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME was troubled at the start last time out, but should work out a comfortable tracking trip today. #8 LOOKIN AT LEE has been the runner-up twice at Churchill, including last year’s Derby. Will come running late, but may not get a strong pace up front today. #5 SONNETEER failed to make headway in last year’s Derby, but has run well since the addition of blinkers late last year and is another to look for late.
Race 4: 3-9-7-2
#3 DING DONG DITCH has shown a tactical foot in his brief career and should be ready to roll second time back from the winter layoff. #9 IRISH TERRITORY was solid last summer in his lone try without trouble, and Mott’s willingness to throw him into that stakes spot off the debut shows great confidence sure to pay off down the line. Looms a threat at solid odds. #7 MAKEAMERICAGREAT returns to the turf for the first time since last fall, and his form there fits with this group. Great value at 15-1 morning line. #2 MIDNIGHT TEA TIME was mired behind a sluggish pace after trouble at the start last time out, but will need to take a step forward to factor.
Race 5: 8-5-9-6
#8 MCCRAKEN turns back to a one-turn mile for the first time since his second career race when he scored over this track. This may be his best game and projects to see a solid clip ahead, setting up his late move. #5 PETROV stretches back out to a route and could sit a solid stalking trip behind the first wave and get the jump on the closers. #9 DAZZLING GEM exits a disappointing effort, but should benefit from the short break and come charging late. #6 BEHAVIORAL BIAS is an interesting option on the stretchout to a mile while projecting as one of the frontrunners.
Race 6: 8-1-4-5
#8 AMERICAN GAL came back off the winter layoff to just miss against a few of these and should be sharper from that effort. Projects to push the pace from this outside post. #1 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM is a true horse for the course and is a perfect 6-6 at Churchill Downs. Inside pacesetter set a torrid pace last time out and just held on. Remains a huge threat to wire the field today. #4 SKYE DIAMONDS is highly consistent and picks up Mike Smith while shipping in from the west coast. Should track the leaders and get first run on the closers. #5 LEWIS BAY is another exiting the Madison and has shown great tactical foot in the past.
Race 7: 3-6-9-11
#3 DREAM AWHILE returns off a three month layoff for Chad Brown’s top turf barn. Shortedns up a bit for this one, but can work out her own trip and remains a major threat. #6 PROCTOR’S LEDGE offers great value at 12-1 on the morning line, and has been much improved since the addition of lasix last summer. Another who shortens up for this effort, so she’ll have to time her move just right. #9 ON LEAVE switches back to Jose Ortiz while going second off the winter layoff for McGaughey with a 7/7 in the money record at the mile distance. #11 LA CORONEL projects as a pacesetter from this outside post, but will have to outbreak longshot Psycho Sister to her immediate inside.
Race 8: 5-10-3-7
#5 OUTPLAY should sit a good trip at solid odds second time off the winter layoff with a local bullet work in tow. Cut back to today’s 7 furlong distance for his first start of the year and turned in a carer effort. #10 AWESOME SLEW has been terrifically consistent Beyer-wise and looms a major threat on the outside as likely second choice. Should get a good pace setup for his late kick. #3 IMPERIAL HINT is 3 for 4 at this distance, but is more seasoned at 6 furlongs and will have company on the lead. Got a nice workout win at Tampa in preparation for this and can’t be overlooked. #7 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL is this event’s defending champion. Has gone off favored in every start since then, but likely not the case today. Would love a wet track and is a horse for the course with five wins and one second out of seven starts at Churchill. Projects for solid value in a close stalking trip.
Race 9: 1-3-6-14
#1 SPEED FRANCO faces a class test today, but owns a pace advantage from the inside post and has never finished more than a length off the lead in six career races. Must carry that speed over this 1 1/16 mile distance, but should offer solid value. #3 THREEANDFOURPENCE is an interesting option returning to turf after being demolished by Derby entrant Mendelssohn in the UAE Derby in his lone try on dirt. Returns to his preferred surface today over a route of ground for the first time. #6 RIVER BOYNE should appreciate the added ground as he looks to finish up strong late. #14 ADMIRALTY PIER takes to the turf with lasix for just the second time after producing a Beyer top last time out under those conditions. Second off the winter layoff, but must overcome this outside post.
Race 10: 14-5-7-11
#14 GREYVITOS owns a tactical foot from this far outside post and should be able to work out favorable early position. Returns to what is probably his best distance and aims to get first run on the closers while tracking a contested pace. #5 MISSISSIPPI was too close to the strong pace in the Florida Derby, and may be overlooked here because of it. Should also track the early pace, but from a more comfortable position than the top choice. #7 MADISON’S LUNA presents legitimate speed, but must handle the stretchout today. #11 SPORTING CHANCE should appreciate the turnback exiting the Bluegrass, and enters this off a sizzling local workout.
Race 11: 10-3-7-6
#10 BEACH PATROL has been a triple-digit Beyer machine, and makes his first start of the year in this spot, though he may be even better going longer. #3 KURILOV has improved along the Beyer scale each of his three starts in North America. Has been given time off since returning to the turf at Gulfstream in February when coming up just short in a Grade I spot. Big threat here with another move forward. #7 SYNCHRONY faces a class test, but enters this in the best form of his career. Projects to sit just off the pace and get first move on the closers. #6 ARKLOW has really taken to the turf over the last year, but will need a career effort to score and exacta finish today.
Race 12: 7-18-5-6
#7 JUSTIFY has done nothing but fire triple-digit Beyer figures in each of his three career races. The Kentucky Derby favorite will be attempting to undo 136 years of history as no horse has won the Derby without racing as a 2-year old since Apollo in 1882, but the Baffert trainee looks up to the task. The fact that he has trained exclusively at Santa Anita and has merely galloped over the Churchill track is cause for some concern, but if Justify breaks clean and avoids getting shuffled back around the first turn, he will be a threat late. #18 VINO ROSSO punched his ticket to Lexington with an off-the-pace score in the Wood Memorial, which has been downgraded to a Grade II race in recent years due to its entrants failing to menace in the Derby. However, Vino Rosso appears to be entering the first Saturday in May in peak condition with a local bullet work in tow. If predictions of a hot early pace come true, Vino Rosso could likely be the one making up all the ground late at a solid price. #5 AUDIBLE has won his last four races including scores in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby and should do fine with today’s added ground. Tactical runner can work out his own trip from any position. #6 GOOD MAGIC, like Audible faces speed to both sides, but will be in position to track those leaders and unleash a run around the turn. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion will race over his sixth different course in as many starts, but Chad Brown could have him cranked up for a career effort.
Race 13: 6-5-1-9
#6 DETERMINANT was troubled and outclassed in his first start over dirt in the Bluegrass, but was mired in the 14 post there and his local works suggest the surface won’t be an issue in this easier spot. #5 LIONITE faces winners for the first time, but comes in off a strong effort and should be able to track the leaders throughout. #1 BATTLE AT SEA took off on the stretchout two back and now steps in with open company. Inside speed with a bullet work in tow will try to get the job done wire to wire at a solid price. #9 REGAL QUALITY made up ground behind a tepid pace last time out, and should be ready to roll off the short layoff.
Race 14: 5-6-7-4
#5 LOCOMOTION has dealt with trouble in every race of his career. Now takes the blinkers off and reverts to Rosario. He will put it together and enjoy a clean run eventually, and that day could be today at a double-digit price.#6 LIMATION is a major pace factor and turns back a little from his last race where he gave up the lead late. Will be a threat to wire the field. #7 MO ZONE should take to today’s added ground. Came wide last time out from his outside post and has every right to take another step forward. #4 COROT is in a good spot second off the layoff for Mark Casse as he looks to carry his effort the full mile.
ANYHorse 